US fertility rate hits record low, reflecting economic pressures

The United States fertility rate has reached an all-time low, with data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicating a decline of nearly 23 percent since 2007. The fertility rate for 2025 stands at 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, marking a one percent decrease from the previous year. Experts attribute this trend to various factors, including changing priorities among younger women and socioeconomic challenges such as the high cost of living and childcare.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, childcare costs vary significantly across states, with California averaging nearly $22,000 per year, while Alabama's costs are around $8,000. Phillip Levine, an economics professor at Wellesley College, noted that factors like increased job market demands and expanded leisure options have made having children less appealing. In response to the declining birth rates, policymakers are considering pro-natalist policies to incentivize young couples to have children. The Trump administration has positioned itself as the 'party of parents,' promoting initiatives to increase access to IVF treatments, despite significant cuts to social programs.

Trump has defended his budget request for fiscal year 2027, which includes a $1.5 trillion military spending proposal while suggesting that states should manage childcare and healthcare programs. He stated, "The United States can’t take care of daycare. That has to be up to a state." This approach may further strain social support systems, particularly in states with fewer resources. The narrative around declining birth rates has also been co-opted by far-right politicians, who argue that demographic changes could threaten white majorities due to immigration.

What to watch: The upcoming fiscal policy decisions by the Trump administration regarding social spending and their impact on family support initiatives.